What are my chances of finding love?

So what are my chances of finding love? We all meet people and have friends who ask the same question…”you’re such a great guy. WHY are you single?”

After hearing this, I can’t help but wonder just what are the odds to meeting my soul mate? Or finding the love of my life? But my standard response is, “Well, if you know of any great single ladies, introduce us.”

It’s at this moment where you see the expression on their face change as they quickly try to think through all the people they know. Kinda like someone shuffling a deck of cards.

Then my second favorite moment when their facial expression changes again. You don’t even have to ask because you can just see how they’ve come up empty.

So given that people I’m already acquainted with haven’t come up with an eligible bachelorette, let’s play a game of Statistics 101.

The Math

As of this writing I’m in Perth, Western Australia.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the latest year they are available (2011), the population is roughly 1,830,000. I am only including women local to Perth as in a relationship I actually want to be able to see her regularly.

To narrow it down, I’d be interested in anyone slightly older to maybe up to 10 years younger (figure 31-41 years of age). According to the age and sex distribution in Western Australia as of June 30, 2011:

• 30-34 y/o females comprise roughly 3.80% of the population
• 35-39 y/o females comprise roughly 3.85% of the population
• 40-44 y/o females comprise roughly 3.90% of the population

for a grand total of:

(1,830,000 * 0.038) + (1,830,000 * 0.0385) + (1,830,000 * 0.039)
=    69,540                +  70,455                        +  71,370

= 211,365 eligible aged females.

Now let’s assume that roughly half of those women are “emotionally and physically available” for a long term relationship. If you think my using “half” is too low, read some of my future “dating experiences” blogs!

211,365 / 2

= 105,682 (because even numbers are easier to work with)

Of the eligible women, maybe I’ll find 1/3 of them attractive:

105,682 * 33%
= 34,875

Let’s assume that 1/3 of those women also find me attractive:

34,875 * 33%
= 11,508

From the remaining, I’m going out on a limb and predicting that approximately half meet the following criteria:

• have no children AND
• are a non-smoker/non illegal drug user/don’t require massive amounts of alcohol to survive or have fun AND
• are active/athletic AND
• smart enough to hold intelligent, fun conversations on a variety of topics.

11,508 / 2
= 5,754

And So the Odds to Finding a Soul Mate Are…???

I currently have a 1 / 5,754 chance to find that one special person – my soul mate. That’s 0.0173%.

According to the website http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm, I have a better chance of:
1) hole in one: 5,000 to 1
-> um…which I’ve done a few times now at various mini-golf courses

2) injury from using a chain saw: 4,464 to 1
-> I’ve used a few over the last 2 years, so I had better be careful

3) fatally slipping in bath or shower: 2,232 to 1
-> guess I should wear boots when cleaning the floor

4) being on plane with a drunken pilot: 117 to 1
-> I don’t want to know

5) dating a millionaire: 215 to 1
-> really?! Any single, available lady millionaires reading this? 🙂

Assuming my math is correct, the odds seem harsh.

You can help improve them!

Let me conclude by asking you… know any eligible single females you can introduce me to?